Tuesday, April 3, 2012

"Correlation Between Stock Returns and GDP"

From History Squared:
The correlation is non existent, except that you would have earned a 21% one-year return if you invested when GDP is less than zero percent. 

The best time to invest is when unemployment is peaking and higher than trend.  Study conducted by O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. 
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Is it just me or is the sentence ""There appears to be no actionable relationship between economic growth and stock returns" hilarious in its pedantry?

In addition to HistorySquared's comment on the short to medium term you have to consider an economy that is steady-state to infinity.

I mean the authors use the words exactly and correctly in the instant case but in the big picture if there is no economic growth there are no stock returns other than the sine wave of movement caused by mean-reversion of P/E multiples.
Sine-waving for all eternity.

You invest in the stock market?
That sounds risky
NASA astronaut Bruce McCandless flies over 30 metres from the Shuttle Challenger in an untethered spacewalk.
NASA astronaut Bruce McCandless flies over 30 metres from 
the Shuttle Challenger in an untethered spacewalk.