Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Google’s Lunchtime Betting Game (Prediction Markets)

From the New York Times:

IT probably doesn’t come as a huge surprise to learn that while employees in many companies sit in the cafeteria gossiping about work, or the boss, or the competition, at Google they are doing something else.

At Google, employees are encouraged to go online and place bets on a prediction market — an exchange that tries to forecast events based on the money wagered on a particular outcome.

Prediction markets have been used for years to predict things like elections. At Google, they are used, of course, for business. In the last two and a half years, 1,463 employees have made wagers with play money (Goobles, as in rubles) on questions like: will Google open a Russia office? will Apple release an Intel-based Mac? how many users will Gmail have at the end of the quarter?>>>MORE